EU agricultural outlook for the EU agricultural markets and income 2017-2030 : december 2017

This report presents the outlook for the major EU agricultural commodity markets and for agricultural income until 2030. The outlook is based on a set of assumptions that are deemed plausible at this point in time. Although EU biofuel policy changes after 2020 are still unclear, the biofuels market will remain policy-driven. Despite this, the main factor affecting the market after 2020 will be the reduction in overall petrol and diesel use. Reduced demand for biodiesel from vegetable oils will exert downward pressure on rapeseed production in the EU. EU cereal prices are expected to progressively gain momentum, climbing to above EUR 170/t on average. This comes against the backdrop of restricted land availability, recovering energy prices and sustained demand. In this context, the possibility of price spikes cannot be ruled out, particularly in response to climate events...