Transmission of ESBL-producing E. coli via the broiler meat chain – a quantitative approach

During the last years a growing rate of enterobacteria which produce extended spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBLs) could be observed in livestock animals. ESBL-producing bacteria can not only destroy penicillins but also cephalosporins of the 3rd and 4th generation. In the years 2009 to 2011, the BfR examined E. coli and Salmonella isolates from broilers and found that up to 13.5 % were resistant to cephalosporins. As part of a risk assessment framework for ESBLs we developed a concept for modeling and quantifying the exposure of the consumer with ESBL-producing E. coli via the broiler meat chain. The exposure model incorporates concepts designed by Nauta et al. (2007). It models the changes in pathogen numbers along the steps of the broiler food chain, starting with entrance of the birds into the slaughterhouse, followed by the consecutive processing steps to a chicken breast filet, transportation, food preparation and ending with the intake of ESBL-producing E. coli by the consumer. The parametrization of the model comprises several studies performed within the German joint research project RESET and an extensive literature research. The authors intend to present their modeling framework and give insights into the parametrization of the exposure model. First simulation results for ESBL-producing E. coli will be presented and compared to results from other studies in RESET and to other modeling approaches. Possible impacts of modeling assumptions will be discussed and evaluated.