DGPT-Tagung in Mainz

Salmonella spp. Is a major cause of human gastroenteritis worldwide. In order to identify and prioritize food safety interventions, it is important to be able to quantify the number or proportion of human cases attributable to the responsible sources. Based on the data from the integrated Danish Salmonella surveillance, Hald et al. (2004) developed a mathematical model for quanitifying the contribution of each of the major animal-food sources to human salmonellosis. The model uses a Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the number of domestic and sporadic human function of the prevalence of these types in the animal-food sources, the amount of food source consumed and the differences between serotypes and food sources consumed and the differences between serotypes and food sources in their ability to cause disease. The approach has proved to be a valuable tool in risk management in Denmark and is routinely applied to quantify the contribution of the various sources to human salmonellosis in the country each year. An attempt to adapt the modal to other countries data was made under the scope of the Human Illness Attribution working group supported by Med Vet Net (WP 28). Representatives from national public health and veterinary institutions from Germany, United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Sweden, Poland and France made attempts to develop national source account models. The method was adapted according to data features and availability, and the results were interpreted in light of the different countries realities with respect to public health, animal and food production, and food consumption figures. We present the comparison between the different developed models and their results. The estimated proportion of cases each source is responsible for in the different countries is analyzed, and differences in the most important sources for human salmonellosis in each country are discussed. Limitations and reasons for unsuccessful adaptations are presented and the usefulness of the method to attribute human salmonellosis cases to the responsible sources in different countries is discussed.

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DGPT-Tagung in Mainz. 2008.

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