EU enlargement to Turkey: potential impacts on agricultural markets and how they are shaped by changes in macroeconomic conditions

The potenial accession of Turkey to the EU, and the related adoption of the CAP by Turkey, is expected to influence agricultural markets in both the EU and Turkey. The extent of the accession impacts depends on the one hand on the way the CAP will be implemented in Turkey, while on the other hand impacts are expected to be also shaped by macroeconomic conditions (like exchange rates, GDP growth and inflation levels). In this paper we provide a comprehensive model-based assessment of the potential impacts on agricultural markets of a Turkish accession to the EU. We first assess the impacts under the assumption of standard macroecononomic projections, than we analyse how a different TL/Euro exchange rate, a doubling of the Turkish inflation rate or a doubling of the Turkish GDP growth rate would influence the accession impacts.