World food security and global warming: challenges for agriculture
The turn of the millennium has marked a mega trend reversal on international agricultural markets. Since the turn of the millennium the trend in agricultural world market prices has been positive and this can be expected to continue for the next few decades. The reason is that growth in global demand is outstripping growth in supply. This article provides a quantitative analysis of future international agricultural markets. The result is that prices of many important agricultural commodities will be between 50 and 100 per cent higher toward the end of this millenium's second decade compared to prices in 2003/05. One of the key variables driving price increases will be the price of energy as it affects production costs and the competitiveness of bioenergy.