Exploring lake ecosystems: hierarchy responses to long-term change?

Shifts in climate regime have provoked substantial trophic- and species-dependent changes within ecosystems. With growing concerns of present global warming, we examined potential lake ecosystem responses, natural hierarchy responses (i.e. immediate responses at lower system levels as opposed to delayed responses at higher system levels), and possible shifts among abiotic (physics, nutrients) and biotic (phytoplankton, zooplankton) system components. Specifically, we analyzed decadal data collected from Müggelsee, a lake in Berlin, Germany, for climate-induced abiotic and biotic changes, their timing and type, and classified them as abrupt permanent, gradual permanent, abrupt temporary, or monotonic.We further categorized variable changes as a function of system hierarchy, including lake physics (ice, temperature, stratification), nutrients (phosphorus, nitrogen, silicate), plankton, and levels of integration (i.e. species, taxonomic groups, and total plankton). Contrary to current theory, data suggest abrupt responses did not occur in a hierarchy-dependent manner, nor was a clear pattern observed among functional system-based categories. Abrupt permanent changes were the most prominent response pattern observed, suggesting they may be driven by largescale climatic oscillations and by surpassed thresholds, as noted in previous case studies. Gradual changes coincided with affected abiotic parameters spanning an expansive time range; for example, climatic effects in spring preceded changes in nutrient limitation. Variables displaying no long-term changes pointed to compensation processes caused by, e.g., simultaneously acting forces of warming trends and climate-independent changes in trophic state. Nevertheless, the complexity of response patterns at the single system level manifested clear chronological regime shifts in abiotic and biotic parameters in spring and, to a lesser extent, in summer. With regard to projected global warming, the majority of currently unaffected system levels may face impending thermal thresholds, achievement of which would result in an accelerated shift in ecosystem state.