Impacts of 2003 enCommon Agricultural PolicyCAP reform on land rental prices and capitalization

Based on a graphical analysis, we investigate the impacts of the Fischler Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on land rental prices and the capitalization of single farm payments (SFP) into land values. The model shows that the degree of capitalization mainly depends on the scarcity/surplus of SFP entitlements relative to eligible hectares, the implementation model (historical versus regional) and the land supply elasticity. If there are more SFP entitlements than eligible hectares, the degree of capitalization into land values may not decline and may even increase due to the inclusion of other supports such as animal premiums in the SFP. We test this hypothesis with an empirical analysis of cross-section data on land rental prices in Bavaria for 2005. Empirical results indicate that decoupled SFP are capitalized into rental prices to a larger degree than the coupled direct payments of the time prior to the reform