Competitiveness of the European Forest Sector - a contribution to EFSOS II

As a contribution to the second European Forest Sector Outlook Study (EFSOS II) this study analysis the historic and future competitiveness of the European forest sector using the constant market share (CMS) methodology. The analysis is based on bilateral trade data in monetary terms. The historic ex-post analysis covers the years from 1993 to 2008, with a specific focus on the period 2003 to 2008. The scenario analysis is undertaken for the period 2010 to 2030. The basis is given by a reference scenario. It describes a business as usual development. Additionally, as a policy scenario, the effects of the promotion of wood energy on trade and competitiveness are examined. The ex-post analysis shows that most countries of the EFSOS region have had a positive export growth in period 2003-2008. The growth of the world market can be identified as the main driver of the positive development. But also the presence with forest products in growing regional markets has had positive effects. The specific wood products also had further additional positive effects. The results of the reference scenario show that the world market will constantly increase in period 2010 to 2030, with benefit also for the countries of the EFSOS region. However, the growth of the world market will be the only driver which leads to export growth in the EFSOS region. This means EFSOS countries are expected to be below world average with regard to their presence in expanding regional markets, in particular, for growing commodity markets and with regard to their competitiveness.