Ecotypic variation in multiple traits of European beech - selection of suitable provenances based on performance and stability [Preprint]

Promoted by changes in forest management, the proportion of European beech is increasing in Central Europe, but its climatic stability is questioned by the recent loss of vitality. In this regard, the evaluation of seed sources used for reforestation receives great attention. Here, we present a multi-trait evaluation of height, basal area and stem quality assessed over 25 years for 85 provenances grown at three sites in northern, western and eastern Germany. Considerable provenance differentiation exists, explaining 21% (proportion of trees with acceptable stem form) to 45% (basal area) of the variance on single sites and 20 to 39% across sites, while provenance by environment interactions are absent. On the landscape level, this results in distinct patterns with spatially adjacent provenances showing a similar trait expression. These patterns are highly similar for height and basal area, but divergent for stem form. They could be directly linked to geographic variables with multivariate regression tree analysis that captured 58% of the phenotypic variation, delineating eleven ‘ecotypes’ shaped by local adaptation. A selection based on two multi-trait indices gives highly concordant results. Particularly, the intermediate elevations of the central highlands in Western Germany host highly suitable provenances. Lower elevation provenances from continental climates in the south-east profit from the transfer to favorable growing conditions. Since the majority of provenances was already exposed to elevated temperatures compared to their origin during the observation period, this study gives a first indication for the potential benefits of assisted migration facing climate change.