Evaluation of Surveillance Strategies for Early Detection of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar

African swine fever (ASF) is a viral pig disease with huge socio-economic consequences. Wild boar populations play the role of genotype II epidemiological reservoir. In Germany, large areas are still disease-free. In such areas, early disease detection in wild boar is of utmost importance to minimize further spread. Surveillance in ASF-free regions of Germany consists of obligatory virological investigations in all wild boar found sick or dead (passive surveillance) and voluntary virological and serological examinations in hunted animals (active surveillance). The latter is occasionally performed, using the 59 samples per district per year obtained for demonstrating freedom from classical swine fever. The added value of active surveillance for early ASF detection in disease-free areas, as well as the effects of potential seasonality in surveillance activities were investigated using a simulation model. A combined passive-active surveillance strategy (reference) was compared with alternative strategies consisting of solely passive or active surveillance, using detection probability (within 24 weeks since virus introduction) and timeliness as performance indicators. Samples were either randomly distributed over the year or based on real surveillance data. Highly similar detection probabilities and timeliness scores were observed for scenarios with and without reference-level active surveillance. Detection occurred earliest upon virus introduction in November or December and latest in May, June or July. Thus, sampling 59 hunted animals per district per year seems to contribute negligibly to ASF early warning. Focussing efforts on carcass search activities (including in summer) improves early detection, which is critical to prevent further disease spread.

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