Analyzing the effect of Green Deal's organic farming target with the CAPRI model

One of the goals of the new European Green Deal is to reach 25% of organic farmland until 2030. Even though the target has been established, it is not translated into specific political measures. To contribute to the impact assessment of such policy goal, we use the CAPRI model to simulate three different scenarios: (1) the reference scenario; (2) all member states will contribute equally to reach the target (ALL25); (3) all member states will increase their organic farmland share by the same rate until 25% is reached (ALLDIFF). Compared with the reference, in both scenarios, increasing organic farmland translates in increasing prices of agricultural commodities, reduced agricultural supply of the EU with corresponding higher imports and lower exports. At the same time, positive environmental effects arise. In scenario ALL25, total production, producer and consumer welfare decrease less than in ALLDIFF while environmental effects are similar. These findings imply that countries with higher organic shares have a relatively efficient organic sector. A targeted policy boosting organic agriculture in specific areas and for specific crops would help to reach the target more efficiently.