Article CC BY 4.0
refereed
published

International food trade contributes to dietary risks and mortality at global, regional and national levels

ORCID
0000-0001-6028-5712
Affiliation
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Springmann, Marco;
ORCID
0000-0002-4542-0768
Affiliation
UCL Energy Institute, Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London, United Kingdom
Kennard, Harry;
ORCID
0000-0002-2123-9622
Affiliation
UCL Energy Institute, Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London, United Kingdom
Dalin, Carole;
GND
1121237304
ORCID
0000-0003-0803-6238
Affiliation
Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries, Institute of Market Analysis, Braunschweig, Germany
Freund, Florian

Food trade is generally perceived to increase the availability and diversity of foods available to consumers, but there is little empirical evidence on its implications for human health. Here we show that a substantial proportion of dietary risks and diet-related mortality worldwide is attributable to international food trade and that whether the contributions of food trade are positive or negative depends on the types of food traded. Using bilateral trade data for 2019 and food-specific risk–disease relationships, we estimate that imports of fruits, vegetables, legumes and nuts improved dietary risks in the importing countries and were associated with a reduction in mortality from non-communicable diseases of ~1.4 million deaths globally. By contrast, imports of red meat aggravated dietary risks in the importing countries and were associated with an increase of ~150,000 deaths. The magnitude of our findings suggests that considering impacts on dietary risks will become an important aspect of health-sensitive trade and agriculture policies, and of policy responses to disruptions in food chains.

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