Future renewable fuel mixes in transport in Germany under RED II and climate protection targets

With the Renewable Energy Directive 2018/2001 (RED II), adopted in December 2018, the EU is continuing the political framework for the use of renewable energy sources in the transport sector for the period from 2021 to 2030. At the same time, the German federal government has set a target of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transport sector by at least 40% to 42% by 2030 compared to the 1990 GHG level. To investigate the possible effects of the European and national requirements on the German GHG quota, cost-optimal fuel mixes were modelled to achieve the GHG targets of 26 fuel options in each of the nine different scenarios. The results show clear differences between the scenarios that implement the RED II targets (including 14% renewables in transport by 2030) and those that implement the climate protection target (40%-42% GHG reduction compared to 1990 by 2030). If only the minimum requirements of RED II are met, the German climate protection target is clearly missed without further measures. In order to achieve the climate protection target, a significant reduction in the final energy consumption in transport is required, as well as a very high GHG quota of 34.5%, meaning a high proportion of renewables of ca. 40% and using almost all the fuel options considered.