Contact-based model for epidemic spreading on temporal networks : [Preprint]

We present a contact-based model to study the spreading of epidemics by means of extending the dynamic message passing approach to temporal networks. The shift in perspective from nodeto edge-centric quantities allows to accurately model Markovian susceptible-infected-recovered outbreaks on time-varying trees, i.e., temporal networks with a loop-free underlying topology. On arbitrary graphs, the proposed contact-based model incorporates potential structural and temporal heterogeneity of the underlying contact network and improves analytic estimations with respect to the individual-based (node-centric) approach at a low computational and conceptual cost. Within this new framework, we derive an analytical expression for the epidemic threshold on temporal networks and demonstrate the feasibility on empirical data.