Impacts of changing coniferous and non-coniferous wood supply on forest product markets: a German scenario case study

Management strategies which encourage the conversion of coniferous forests to mixed and deciduous stands potentially increase the share of non-coniferous timber in wood supply over the next decades. The objective of this study is to examine possible market impacts from changing wood supply modeled in the German Forest Development and Timber Volume Model (WEHAM) Scenario. Special emphasis is paid to decreasing coniferous timber availability and the ramifications this development might have on the wood-based industry in Germany. For this purpose, our study introduces the GFPMCNC, a modified version of the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) which distinguishes coniferous and non-coniferous industria roundwood as different raw materials and coniferous and non-coniferous sawnwood as additional products on global level. In the GFPMCNC, wood-based panels and pulp could be made from a mix of two roundwood commodities instead of one single input factor. The base period for this study is 2012. Results are reported by 2015 and in the following in mid-period intervals at 5-year steps until 2050. The WEHAM Scenario impact analysis reveals that limited coniferous raw materials lead to lower wood manufacturing activities and declining exports of coniferous sawnwood at the same time as German imports of coniferous industrial roundwood and wood pulp increase over time.