Potential spread of kiwifruit bacterial canker (Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae) in Europe

Pest risk analyses (PRAs) are conducted to determine whether an organism is a pest and whether and how it should be regulated. Estimation of the potential area of establishment and pest spread are key factors of this analysis. Tools for modelling and mapping of these key factors have to be quick and easily applicable for a wide variety of organisms with limited data for parameterization. For this purpose, a dispersal kernel model based on a 2Dt‐distribution had been developed in a European Union project (PRATIQUE). The aim of the present study was the evaluation of this spread model hitherto tested on insects, plants, fungi and nematodes in order to determine its applicability to bacterial pests. Therefore, the potential distribution and spread of kiwifruit bacterial canker Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae in Europe was investigated based on climatic suitability and host plant availability. The results of the modelling were compared with the spread history of the pest in Europe. It is shown that this generic spread model can also be applied to a bacterial pest.