Scientific Report of the European Food Safety Authority on the Assessment of the Geographical BSE-Risk (GBR) of NICARAGUA

The European Food Safety Authority and its Scientific Expert Working Group on the Assessment of the Geographical Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) Risk (GBR) were asked by the European Commission (EC) to provide an up-to-date scientific report on the GBR in Nicaragua, i.e. the likelihood of the presence of one or more cattle being infected with BSE, pre-clinically as well as clinically, in Nicaragua. This Scientific Report addresses the GBR of Nicaragua as assessed in 2004 based on data covering the period 1980-2003. Only some information on the imported cattle into Nicaragua was available, this implies that the external challenge due to import of live cattle from BSE-risk countries during 1980-2003 was difficult to estimate. Based on the data available, the external challenge due to live cattle imports has varied from negligible to low during 1980-2003. In addition, the external challenge due to the very few imports of meat and bone meal (MBM) can be considered as negligible during 1980-2003. In view of the above-described consideration, the combination of the negligible to low challenges with an extremely unstable and unstable system makes the occurrence of an internal challenge unlikely although it can not be excluded in Nicaragua throughout the considered period. On the basis of the available information the stability cannot be evaluated in depth. In line with the principal of “reasonable worst case assumptions” the BSE/cattle system of Nicaragua is therefore assumed being extremely unstable from 1980 to 2000 and unstable from 2001 to 2003, i.e. it would have recycled and amplified BSE-infectivity, should it have entered the system. A risk that BSE-infected cattle entered processing in Nicaragua has been negligible before mid 1990’s. Thereafter, the risk has been increasing, but is still at a low level. A low risk that the BSE-infectivity was recycled and amplified exists since mid 1990’s. Given the instability of system, this risk may grow over time. EFSA concludes that the current GBR level of Nicaragua is II, i.e. it is unlikely but can not be excluded that domestic cattle are (clinically or pre-clinically) infected with the BSE-agent. Until the stability is increased, it is expected that the GBR continues to grow, even if no additional external challenge occurs.