Scientific Report of the European Food Safety Authority on the Assessment of the Geographical BSE-Risk (GBR) of SOUTH AFRICA

The European Food Safety Authority and its Scientific Expert Working Group on the Assessment of the Geographical Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) Risk (GBR) were asked, under a self-tasking mandate, to provide an up-to-date scientific report on the GBR in South Africa, i.e. the likelihood of the presence of one or more cattle being infected with BSE, pre-clinically as well as clinically, in South Africa. Although South Africa was not included in a mandate as received by the European Commission (EC), it was deemed necessary to assess South Africa in order to allow a meaningful evaluation of three other countries in the Southern African Region from which a GBR assessment was requested by the EC. This scientific report addresses the GBR of South Africa as assessed in 2004 based on data covering the period 1980-2003. The BSE agent was probably imported into the country and could have reached domestic cattle in the middle of the eighties. These cattle imported in the mid eighties could have been rendered in the late eighties and therefore led to an internal challenge in the late 80s. It is possible that imported meat and bone meal (MBM) into South Africa reached domestic cattle in the mid 80s and it is very probable that MBM imported in the late 90s led to an internal challenge in the late 90s. A certain risk that BSE-infected cattle entered processing in South Africa, and were at least partly rendered for feed, occurred in the late 1980s when cattle imported (from UK) in the mid 80s could have been slaughtered or rendered as fallen stock. This risk continued to exist, and grew significantly in the beginning of the 90’s when domestic cattle, infected by imported MBM, reached processing. This internal challenge was further fuelled by imports of MBM in the late 90s. Given the low stability of the system, the risk increased. Therefore a risk that BSE-infectivity was recycled and amplified existed since the moment when a processing risk existed, i.e. since the late 80s. Given the instability of the system, this risk grew over time. EFSA concludes that the current GBR level of South Africa is III, i.e. it is likely but not confirmed that domestic cattle are (clinically or pre-clinically) infected with the BSE-agent. As long as there are no serious changes in rendering or feeding, the stability remains very unstable. Thus, the probability of cattle to be (pre-clinically or clinically) infected with the BSE-agent persistently increases even if no additional external challenges occur.