Scientific Report of the European Food Safety Authority on the Assessment of the Geographical BSE-Risk (GBR) of NORWAY

The European Food Safety Authority and its Scientific Expert Working Group on the Assessment of the Geographical Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) Risk (GBR) were asked by the European Commission (EC) to provide an up-to-date scientific report on the GBR in Norway, i.e. the likelihood of the presence of one or more cattle being infected with BSE, pre-clinically as well as clinically, in Norway. This scientific report addresses the GBR of Norway as assessed in 2004 based on data covering the period 1980-2003. Between 1980 and 1990, an extremely unstable system was exposed to a negligible/very low challenge. Between 1991 and 1999, the stability of the system increased to very unstable and then to unstable in 2000, while the challenge increased to moderate and subsequently decreased to negligible in 1996. Under such low/intermediate levels of risk (as judged by challenge/stability alone), the fact that no BSE case was detected by the very extensive surveillance carried out in Norway since 2001, makes the possibility that BSE-infectivity could have been recycled and amplified unlikely although it cannot be excluded. EFSA concludes that the current geographical BSE-risk (GBR) level is II, as it is unlikely but can not be excluded that domestic cattle are (clinically or pre-clinically) infected with the BSE-agent. The Norwegian BSE/cattle system is now regarded to be very stable. This implies that the probability of cattle to become newly infected with the BSE-agent is very low. Assuming that measures in place continue to be appropriately implemented the GBR will decrease over time at the rate at which already infected animals leave the system. If the measures in place are effectively implemented, the import of live animals cannot increase the risk because the infectivity that could theoretically be harbored by them would not reach domestic cattle. Since recent improvements in the safety of Meat and Bone Meal (MBM) production in many countries or significant recent reductions in the incidence of BSE have not been taken into account for the assessment of the external challenge in the present report, the external challenge assessed after 2001 could be overestimated and is the worst case assumption. However, all current GBR conclusions are not dependent on these assumptions in any of the countries assessed. For future assessments and when the impact of the production, surveillance and true incidence changes has been fully quantified, these developments should be taken into account.