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Modelling and mapping spread in pest risk analysis: a generic approach

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172749077
Affiliation
Julius Kühn-Institute (JKI), Institute for national and international plant health, Germany
Kehlenbeck, Hella;
Affiliation
INRA, UR633, Zoologie Forestie`re, F-45075 Orle´ans (France)
Robinet, H.;
Affiliation
Plant Sciences, Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Crop & Weed Ecology Group, Wageningen University, PO Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen (The Netherlands)
van der Werf, W.;
Affiliation
Cooperative Research Centre for National Plant Biosecurity, Bruce ACT 2617, Australia and CSIRO Entomology, GPO Box 1700, ACT 2601, Canberra (Australia)
Kriticos, D.;
Affiliation
Anses Laboratoire de la Sante´ des Ve´ge´taux, Station d’Angers, 7 rue Jean Dixme´ras, F49044 Angers (France)
Reynaud, P.;
Affiliation
Food and Environment Research Agency, Sand Hutton, York YO41 1LZ (UK)
Baker, R.

Assessing the likelihood and magnitude of spread is one of the cornerstones of pest risk analysis (PRA), and is usually based on qualitative expert judgment. This paper proposes a suite of simple ecological models to support risk assessors who also wish to estimate the rate and extent of spread, e.g. when modelling the dynamics of invasion and the economic impacts that may result. Models are based on simple ecological principles, such as logistic growth, radial range expansion and population growth in combination with dispersal. Different models capture different perspectives of the spread process, being based on pest density or simply presence/absence, and they compare spatially explicit and spatially implicit approaches. A case study on Diabrotica virgifera virgifera is provided for illustration. The suite of models requires further development and testing with the risk assessment community building familiarity before their more general application in PRA.

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