A probabilistic model for the carry-over of PCDD/Fs from feed to growing pigs

Adolphs, J.; Kleinjung, F.; Numata, J.; Mielke, H.; Abraham, K.; Schafft, H.; Müller-Graf, C.; Greiner, M.

When food producing animals are contaminated with PCDD/F congeners, information on the contaminant's concentration in the bodies of the animals at time of slaughter is needed for risk management purposes. We have developed a mathematical model for the kinetics of PCDD/Fs in growing pigs in case of contaminated feed fed for a limited duration of time. This model allows the prediction of concentrations in body fat. It considers absorption fractions of PCDD/Fs, clearance by metabolism, dilution by growth and excretion through fecal fat. The model parameters were calibrated by fitting the model to experimental data. On the basis of this toxicokinetic model a probabilistic model has been constructed. The probabilistic model handles the parameters with appropriate probability distributions and Monte-Carlo simulation technique, providing for realistic situations with many animals and a range of contaminations and feeding intervals. We applied the new model to describe the German dioxin incident of winter 2010/2011 and discuss its viability as decision tool. The approach demonstrated here is a showcase how a risk assessment in the case of contaminated feeding can be performed

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Adolphs, J. / Kleinjung, F. / Numata, J. / et al: A probabilistic model for the carry-over of PCDD/Fs from feed to growing pigs. 2013.

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