Expert opinion based modelling of the risk of human infection with H5N1 through the consumption of poultry meat in Germany

According to current scientific opinion the risk of human infection with H5N1 via preparation and consumption of poultry meat is negligible. This opinion has not yet been challenged by a formal risk assessment, due to the lack of empirical data. We have developed a scenario pathway model as a conceptual framework for a formal assessment of the H5N1 risk to humans through consumption of poultry meat and parameterise the model using information derived from expert opinions. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the notion of an overall negligible risk via the oral infection route is consistent with ad hoc data and expert opinions on the relevant parameters of the model. The model is mainly based on expert opinion. A stochastic Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted Which took into consideration (amongst others) the exposure and infection of chicken (broiler and layer), turkeys, ducks and geese, the probabilities of detection prior to slaughter, virus survival and contamination during slaughter, as well as during the cutting and preparation of meat in commercial plants and in private households, respectively. The empirical consumption pattern for poultry meat in Germany was taken into account in the simulation. The results show that the risk for the individual consumer is practically zero whereas up to 23 cases per year in Germany might occur if the upper (more pessimistic) ranges of the expert opinions apply. The finding of a low but non-negligible risk to the population is discussed in relation to the epidemiological information available from recent outbreaks in South East Asia.