Influence of spatial heterogeneity on an emerging infectious disease: the case of dengue epidemics

Favier, C.; Schmit, D.; Müller-Graf, C. D.; Cazelles, B.; Degallier, N.; Mondet, B.; Dubois, M. A.

doi:10.1098/rspb.2004.3020

referiert

Veröffentlicht

Influence of spatial heterogeneity on an emerging infectious disease: the case of dengue epidemics

Favier, C.; Schmit, D.; Müller-Graf, C. D.; Cazelles, B.; Degallier, N.; Mondet, B.; Dubois, M. A.

The importance of spatial heterogeneity and spatial scales (at a village or neighbourhood scale) has been explored with individual-based models. Our reasoning is based on the Chilean Easter Island (EI) case, where a first dengue epidemic occurred in 2002 among the relatively small population localized in one village. Even in this simple situation, the real epidemic is not consistent with homogeneous models. Conversely, including contact heterogeneity on different scales (intra-households, inter-house, inter-areas) allows the recovery of not only the EI epidemiological curve but also the qualitative patterns of Brazilian urban dengue epidemic in more complex situations

Dateien

beschränkter Zugriff

Einordnung

Erschienen in:: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London / Series B, Biological sciences
Vol. 272, H. 1568 (2005), S. 1171-1177
Band:: 272
Heft:: 1568
Datum der Veröffentlichung:: 2005
DOI:: 10.1098/rspb.2004.3020
Sprache:: Englisch
Ressourcentyp:: Text
Schlagwörter:: article; BRAZIL; Communicable Diseases,Emerging; comparative; Comparative Study; COMPLEX; COMPLEXES; Computer Simulation; Demography; Dengue; DISEASE; Disease Outbreaks; EPIDEMIC; epidemiology; France; Geography; Humans; model; Models; Models,Biological; PATTERN; PATTERNS; Polynesia; Population; Population Dynamics; RECOVERY; Research; study; transmission
DDC-Sachgruppe der DNB:: 600 Technik
Link URL:: http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/272/1568/1171
Einrichtung:: Bundesinstitut für Risikobewertung, Bundesinstitut für Risikobewertung (bis Juni 2014), Abteilung 3 - Wissenschaftliche Querschnittsaufgaben (bis Juni 2014), Fachgruppe 33 - Epidemiologie, Biometrie und mathematische Modellierung